Pride comes before a Fall

Well, today we have witnessed the biggest collapse of New Labour support of all time. Not since 1978 (If memory serves) have we seen such a massive and shocking collapse of support.

Okay, I'll quit being descriptive. Here is my opinion.

I think everyone is beginning to realise that this is the end of New Labour's golden period. For the last 11 years, we have seen a momentus bubble of public support, and even despite the Iraq War, more scandals than you can shake a stick at (The Newspapers will certainly be sorry when Mr Hip and Interesting Cameron and his Totally Rad Conservatives replace this bunch of Clowns), and other interesting quirks that we enjoy as part of the UK, New Labour has endured.

So where has it all gone wrong?

Here is the point where any normal blogger will jump into critisisms of Labour, but I am going to hold back here. HAS it all gone wrong for Labour? Or is this just an illusion that the media wants to tell us - rule one of being a political activist is to recognise the media's exaggeration. The Conservatives made massive games in 2004, but then the General Election came the following year and suddenly they mantained office, despite the Iraq War being such a momentus scandal. Why? Old Duffers. Old Duffers are a great little bunch of people, because they supply that amount of the votes that never shifts for the main two parties. These are the people that have kept Labour in Reading (minus Reading's Labour leader, who lost his seat to the Lib Dems!), have caused trouble in areas like Liverpool, and generally provide a staunch resistance to anything not died in their colour. This is where the Lib Dems lose out - how can one contest a seat when a good 30% of the voters will never switch their vote?

So where HAS it gone wrong for Labour?
1) A poorly run campaign - this is a general problem for all three main parties, but generally Labour shines out in its stinking ineptitude. The London Mayoral elections were based on Livingstone saying how good a job he has done and applauding his own political maverik status.
2) The 10p tax (and related issues). This requires 0 explanation. Look at it this way. Labour has permanently insulted the last of her Socialists. What has happened is that Labour has moved to the centre, but the public have stayed where they were. This is fine in boom times for a party, but very very bad in bust times. The voters feel alienated and revert to the Conservatives, simply because they haven't been in power for 11 years.

3) My personal theory. The public has finally lost faith in Labour. And instead of doing the smart thing (of course) and voting for the Lib Dems, they have shunted themselves onto the side of "Call me Dave" Cameron. Here is a question for you. How many Conservative politicians can you name in a minute that ARE NEW to the Conservatives sinse Cameron took over?

I can't.

This is Cameron's magic - we are entering the phase of The New Conservatives, where the party, like Labour, is willing to do almost any policy, backstab, or general unkindliness as long as they win. And Labour isn't fighting them. We see Ad Hominem Hyperbole in the Commons, Ad Hominem Hyperbole in the news...

Here is a News Flash New Labour. The public has forgotton John Major.

As a Lib Dem supporter (and a leftie), I would be far happier for no more of these political shenanigans to arise before a general election. But that would be stupid. Cameron will pull as many cards as possible to win. And I hope my party can profit from the situation.

------

As of now, the Lib Dems have GAINED BURNLEY. The best thing about this is that we have not only beaten down Labour, but stopped the advance of the BNP (who's only two councillors in the UK exist.) If the Lib Dems can conquer Burnley, maybe Hyndburn is next?

The Lib Dems have had a very good night, truth be told. Only dark spot is Liverpool, but there will always be next year to force down Labour.

- Huw